Lipoti la World Trade Organization pa Global Trade Data ndi Outlook lomwe linatulutsidwa ndi World Trade Organization linanena kuti chifukwa cha kuchira kwamphamvu kwa malonda apadziko lonse m'gawo lachitatu, ntchito yonse ya malonda a padziko lonse chaka chino idzakhala yabwino kuposa momwe amayembekezera poyamba.Komabe, akatswiri azachuma a World Trade Organisation adadziwitsanso kuti m'kupita kwa nthawi, chiyembekezo choti malonda a padziko lonse ayambiranso sichikuyenda bwino chifukwa cha kusatsimikizika monga kutukuka kwa mliriwu.Izi zibweretsa zovuta zatsopano pakugulitsa kunja kwa ceramic ku China.

Kuchita kwa malonda kunali kwabwino kwambiri kuposa momwe amayembekezera

Lipoti la "Global Trade Data and Outlook" likusonyeza kuti malonda padziko lonse lapansi adzatsika ndi 9.2% mu 2020, ndipo machitidwe a malonda a padziko lonse angakhale abwino kuposa momwe amayembekezera.WTO idaneneratu mu Epulo chaka chino kuti malonda apadziko lonse lapansi adzatsika ndi 13% mpaka 32% mu 2020.

The WTO anafotokoza kuti chaka chino ntchito padziko lonse malonda anali bwino kuposa kuyembekezera, mwina chifukwa cha kukhazikitsa amphamvu ndalama ndi ndondomeko zachuma ndi mayiko ambiri kuthandiza mayiko ndi mabungwe ndalama, zomwe zinachititsa kuti mofulumira rebound mu sikelo ya mowa ndi katundu pambuyo "kumasula" ndikufulumizitsa ntchito zachuma kubwezeretsa.

Deta imasonyeza kuti m'chigawo chachiwiri cha chaka chino, malonda a malonda padziko lonse lapansi adakhalapo ndi mbiri yakale, ndipo mwezi ndi mwezi ukugwa kwa 14,3%.Komabe, kuyambira Juni mpaka Julayi, malonda apadziko lonse lapansi adachita mwamphamvu, kutulutsa chizindikiro chabwino chotsitsa ndikukweza ziyembekezo zakuchita malonda kwazaka zonse.Kuchuluka kwa malonda azinthu zokhudzana ndi miliri monga zida zamankhwala zakula motsutsana ndi zomwe zikuchitika, zomwe zachepetsa pang'ono kutsika kwa malonda m'mafakitale ena.Mwa iwo, zida zodzitetezera zidakula "kuphulika" panthawi ya mliri, ndipo malonda ake apadziko lonse adakwera ndi 92% mgawo lachiwiri.

Chief Economist wa WHO Robert Koopman adati ngakhale kuchepa kwa malonda padziko lonse lapansi chaka chino kukufanana ndi vuto lazachuma la 2008-2009, poyerekeza ndi kukula kwa kusinthasintha kwapadziko lonse lapansi (GDP) pamavuto awiriwa, Global trade performance. yakhala yolimba kwambiri pansi pa mliriwu chaka chino.Bungwe la Zamalonda Padziko Lonse limaneneratu kuti GDP yapadziko lonse idzachepa ndi 4.8% chaka chino, kotero kuchepa kwa malonda apadziko lonse ndi pafupifupi kawiri kutsika kwa GDP yapadziko lonse, ndi kuchepa kwa malonda padziko lonse mu 2009 pafupifupi 6 nthawi za GDP yapadziko lonse.

Madera ndi mafakitale osiyanasiyana

Coleman Lee, yemwe ndi katswiri wazachuma ku World Trade Organisation, adauza atolankhani kuti kuchuluka kwa zinthu zaku China panthawi ya mliriwu kunali kokulirapo kuposa momwe amayembekezera, pomwe kufunikira kwa kunja kukukhazikika, zomwe zathandizira kukulitsa kukula kwa malonda aku Asia.

Pa nthawi yomweyi, pansi pa mliriwu, ntchito zamalonda zapadziko lonse m'mafakitale osiyanasiyana sizili zofanana.M'gawo lachiwiri, kuchuluka kwa malonda amafuta padziko lonse lapansi ndi zinthu zamigodi zidatsika ndi 38% chifukwa cha zinthu monga kutsika kwamitengo komanso kutsika kwakukulu kwamafuta.Nthawi yomweyo, kuchuluka kwa malonda azinthu zaulimi monga zofunikira zatsiku ndi tsiku kudatsika ndi 5% yokha.M'makampani opanga zinthu, zogulitsa zamagalimoto zakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi mliriwu.Kukhudzidwa ndi kulemala kwa supply chain ndikuchepetsa kufunikira kwa ogula, malonda onse padziko lonse lapansi mgawo lachiwiri latsika ndi theka;panthawi yomweyi, kukula kwa malonda a makompyuta ndi mankhwala opangira mankhwala kwawonjezeka.Monga chimodzi mwazofunikira m'miyoyo ya anthu, ziwiya zadothi zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito tsiku ndi tsiku ndizofunikira kwambiri popanga panthawi ya mliri.

Ziyembekezo za kuchira n'zokayikitsa kwambiri

Bungwe la WTO linachenjeza kuti chifukwa cha tsogolo la mliriwu komanso njira zothana ndi miliri zomwe mayiko osiyanasiyana akuyenera kutsata, chiyembekezo choti kuchira sichinatsimikizikebe.Lipoti losinthidwa la "Global Trade Data and Outlook" lidatsitsa kukula kwa malonda padziko lonse lapansi mu 2021 kuchoka pa 21.3% mpaka 7.2%, ndikugogomezera kuti kukula kwa malonda chaka chamawa kudzakhala kotsika kwambiri kuposa momwe mliri usanachitike.

Lipoti losinthidwa la "Global Trade Data and Outlook" limakhulupirira kuti m'zaka zapakati, ngati chuma cha padziko lonse chikhoza kukwaniritsa chiwongoladzanja chokhazikika chidzadalira kwambiri momwe ndalama zidzakhalire m'tsogolomu ndi ntchito, ndipo ntchito za onsewa zimagwirizana kwambiri ndi chidaliro chamakampani.Ngati mliriwu ubwereranso mtsogolomo ndipo boma likhazikitsanso njira zotsekera, chidaliro chamakampani chidzagwedezekanso.

M’kupita kwa nthaŵi, kutukumuka kwa ngongole za anthu kudzakhudzanso malonda a padziko lonse ndi kukula kwachuma, ndipo maiko osatukuka kumene angakhale ndi ngongole yaikulu.